“The Big Trends for Cell Phones, 2006 – 2011,” by the research firm of In-Stat, says, according to a snippet in its press release, that the use of camera phones will decline.
The press release says, “According to the In-Stat survey, very few US users, less than 5%, do not use at least one of the technological innovations introduced over this period.
“Consumers seem ready to embrace other new features, including location-based services and Bluetooth connectivity, but only a narrow segment have interest in multimedia features and camera phone use will see a decline.”
Screwy
I haven’t read the report and it’s certainly unfair to characterize In-Stat’s position without reading the conclusions. I’ve sent an e-mail to the firm’s principal analyst, Bill Hughes, for the report to obtain a clarification.
If In-Stat really believes the use of camera phones will decrease during the five years, it seems completely illogical. As more people — both in absolute numbers and as a percentage of existing users — have camera phones (also with video recording) that offer increasingly better imaging, it makes no sense to assume usage will decrease.
In fact, the quote — people willing to embrace location services and Bluetooth — but not multimedia — seems crazy. Cellular subscribers are and will embrace wireless imaging, music and games in much greater numbers than, say, location-based services.
As for Bluetooth, it still can be a huge pain to use, and Americans are much less likely to use it than the more experiences Europeans and Asians.
Update: In-Stat responds
Bill Hughes of In-Stat was nice enough to respond to me e-mail about his view that camera use will decline. He’s given me permission to include his remarks. Bill says:
“In many surveys I have run, the average user is frustrated by several issues. The difficulties include difficulty in getting the pictures off the phone, the camera makes the phone more complicated, and there are many places that business users cannot take the phone.
Most significantly, the resolution on their phone is lower than the stand-alone digital camera that most camera phone owners already have. What users want is a high resolution camera in their phones that has the ability to bypass the wireless network.
By the way, they want it subsidized so that it only costs a little more than a phone without a camera. This business model does not work in any way that I can see.It may be insane, but I see users giving up on the camera for other features they do use. There is more on my position in the report "Multi-Megapixel Camera and Camcorder Phones-The End of the Beginning."
My response
My response, in a nutshell, is: Products improve and usage will increase.
Today’s “standard” cellular camera in the United States is VGA; by 2011 (or earlier), the standard camera phone in the U.S. will be three megapixels with a corresponding improvement in overall optics (lens, software, flash, shutter, etc.) so the camera phone image will be excellent.
Also, screen quality will improve so users will get a much clearer picture (so to speak) of the quality of their images and this will spark printing photos. Ease of use already is improving and will further improve, making it easier to post, share and print photos and videos.
The price of camera components will decrease so the cost of a good-quality camera phone will be significantly less than it is today. Handset vendors aren’t manufacturing in a vacuum; advances in digital cameras and camcorders also positively affect hardware and software for camera phones.
Also, as consumers increasingly listen to music, take photos and videos, the storage options and transfer options will improve. We’ll see more use of memory card slots, hard disk drives and data cables.
The television industry — broadcasters and program companies — are entering the cellular business with new programs for cellular TV. This, too, is “wireless imaging” (as far as I’m concerned) and will help spark the use of phones for still photo and video use.
The explosion in posting/sharing digital camera photos and videos on the Web will increase and this phenomenon will correspondingly spark the posting/sharing of camera phone photos and videos. Cellular operators are well aware of MySpace, YouTube and many other similar sites, and the operators want to cash in on the imaging revolution (yes, it is a revolution).
Bottom line: All my years of experience in the wireless industry and looking at the global technology business as well as my logic and common sense tells me camera phone use will increase dramatically more than it has so far.
Overall growth
In-Stat’s report doesn’t just discuss camera phones. The report says, overall, cellular phone growth will continue to increase but slower than previously. The market for handsets was $110 billion in 2005 and is forecast to be more than $136 billion this year.
In 2011, the forecast is for more than $250 billion. The growth isn’t written in stone. In-Stat says, “it depends upon phone manufacturers continuing to add features that consumers value and that the rest of the industry can support.
“The greatest challenge is to just add the features different customers want without adding unneeded cost or complexity from unneeded or unwanted features.”
No toleration
In-Stat notes, “The goal for wireless phone manufacturers is to make customers forget they ever tolerated a phone without the new innovations.”
That makes sense. “You can’t take photos or videos or listen to music on your phone? How can you stand it?!”